The Road to Helsinki
How Finland joining NATO could impact geopolitics and the war in Ukraine
The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is an international security alliance established in the wake of the second World War
They're a big player in global politics and recently approved membership for their 31st member - Finland
But what does this mean for the future of geopolitics and could it impact the ongoing war efforts in Ukraine?
Finland has become the 31st member to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) marking a significant change to their foreign policy.
Helsinki has had a longstanding policy of neutrality on war and conflict. But, joining NATO signals a strengthened commitment to multilateral cooperation where Finland is preparing to work with other countries on military affairs.
The Finnish President, Sauli Nannistö NATO membership will influence force in how Finland conducts foreign and security policy in the future.
Whilst the move to join NATO isn't aimed at Russia, it could be viewed as an insurance policy given the history between the two countries, who share an 832-mile border.
The ongoing invasion of Ukraine suggests that NATO membership is an opportunity to strengthen international partnerships and that Finns are refusing to be prisoners of geography, exposed to any risks from their Eastern neighbours.
Matias Salo is an Ambassador at the Finland Embassy to the UK and reiterated the warm welcome from other NATO members.
He said: “It’s a new face for Finnish foreign security policy and we’ve become a full member of the Western security community.
“This step is a defensive step. It’s not against anyone. But, we just want to maximise our security and we feel that NATO membership is a good way of us doing that right now.”
However, whilst Finland has joined NATO, they’ve said their application is incomplete until neighbouring Sweden’s application is approved and it looks like this won’t happen anytime soon.
Turkey and Hungary have vetoed Sweden’s admission, following the Madrid Summit of NATO leaders in 2022. Budapest is unhappy with Stockholm’s criticism of the Hungarian majority party, Fidesz led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Credit: Twitter/@FinlandatNATO: Finland's accession to NATO was recently ratified, confirming them as the 31st member of NATO
On top of this, Ankara is less than pleased with Sweden’s criticism of its domestic government and politics and has said that Stockholm will need to change their attitude before it can be a part of NATO.
The international community has been swift to condemn the actions of Russia against Ukraine. However, whilst fine words like sanctions and speeches butter no parsnips, the rules-based framework of organisations like NATO is a strong way of supporting Kyiv, whilst allowing Finland to solidify its position in global governance.
Established in 1949 after World War II, NATO was formed to ensure collective security from another mass conflict.
Then, the Soviet Union was viewed as the biggest security risk and so NATO and Russia have arguably never been friends, reinforcing the significance of Finland’s new foreign policy.
Two key elements of the North Atlantic Treaty give it prestige. Article 3 provides recommendations that member states invest two per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) per annum whilst Article 5 stipulates the provisions for collective security. If one member enters war with a non-member, all NATO members will enter the war.
Whether you’re cynical or pragmatic, this could spell danger for countries in the northern hemisphere, should Ukraine’s entry to NATO be approved. This is something which UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly MP has repeatedly called for
Credit: Twitter/@JamesCleverly: The UK's Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly MP has supported Ukraine joining NATO. But under Article 5 and the collective security assurances, this would put the rest of NATO at war with Russia, including the UK, Poland and Finland
Tim Marshall is a leading author on geopolitics and believes there could be big opportunities for NATO.
“It’s not a game-changer, but it massively enhances NATO’s capability in the ‘high north’ because Finland has a land border with Russia. It has a sea border into the Baltic and when you put that together with Sweden, suddenly NATO’s capabilities are enormously enhanced.”
Where Article 3 recommends two per cent of GDP investment, some experts have forecast that this could make Finland the fifth biggest investor in NATO and could contribute between 70 and 100 million Euros.
Original graphic: NATO recommend that members invest 2% of their annual GDP, but not every country achieves this
Original graphic: NATO recommend that members invest 2% of their annual GDP, but not every country achieves this
However, whilst Helsinki has committed to meeting the expenditure recommendations, it should be noted that not all countries do achieve this as the Article 3 recommendations are not binding.
Credit: Kyle Frazer: Tim Marshall is a leading author and journalist on geopolitics
Credit: Kyle Frazer: Tim Marshall is a leading author and journalist on geopolitics
Former UK NATO Secretary Patrick Turner has said; “There are a lot of allies where even if they were to spend two per cent — that’s not enough,” identifying a flaw with how NATO is funded where pressure is being put on allies to spend more but they aren’t committing to it.
In 2022, only nine member states achieved the two per cent recommendation, the biggest spenders being Greece, the US and Poland. The UK met the target in 2022, contributing just shy of £54m to the NATO pot.
Postcards from Poland
Taking into account NATO spending which is on the rise, it is worthwhile looking at how other NATO members and Ukraine allies are issuing on-the-ground support for Ukrainians, including the third biggest spender – Poland.
A big spender showing no signs of tightening the Zloty purse strings anytime soon, the recent Homeland Defence Act from the Polish Syem (Parliament), has outlined plans for military expenditure to be extended to three per cent of GDP per annum, showing that increased military spending is a key priority.
Poland is currently spending 2.4 per cent and so the Homeland Defence Act marks a commitment to increasing their investment by 0.6 per cent.
The increased spending requirements mentioned by Patrick Turner have only been enshrined into law for three NATO members – Poland, Lithuania and Romania, signifying a hesitance to formally commit to more spending from wealthier NATO members.
Original graphic: In recent years, Poland has increased NATO spending
Original graphic: In recent years, Poland has increased NATO spending
A defender of Kyiv since the war erupted in February 2022, Warsaw has a particular defence interest as between both Poland and Ukraine is a shared 330-mile-long border.
President Andrzej Duda summarised this when addressing the London Defence Conference in May 2023, saying; “All of it is costly [but] Poles know perfectly well that the cost would be even higher if Ukraine lost.
“We have to stress, loud and clear, that we do not agree to the violation of international law which we had established based on our shared values of freedom, equality and independence of nations.”
Speaking at the gathering of leaders and thinkers on global defence, security and international relations at King's College London, the Polish President said; “Up until now, we have provided over 300 battle tanks, hundreds of infantry fighting vehicles, more car and aircraft capabilities.
"We were also one of the first states to hand over our military jets to Ukrainian pilots. These aircraft allow them to protect their skies against Russian attacks.”
President Duda is keen for other countries to consider introducing domestic policies like the Homeland Defence Act to increase military spending, following Poland, Lithuania and Romania.
The contrast in international relations between two neighbouring states couldn’t be any different to the border shared between Finland and Russia. “We are strong in the alliance. We are strong together.”
The UK and NATO
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that Finland’s admission to NATO is “historic”, an unsurprising sentiment considering that the three PMs who have held the keys to 10 Downing Street since February 2022 have unreservedly supported the efforts of Ukraine.
Hosting regular meetings in London with Zelenskyy, the UK is keen to present a global Britain that respects freedom and democracy and so inherently wants victory for Ukraine.
Alicia Kearns MP is the head of the UK Government’s Foreign Affairs Committee. She told us that Finland’s NATO membership is “greatly welcomed” but that it is incomplete until the roadblocks to Sweden’s entry have been lifted by Hungary and Turkey.
"Russia thought its aggression would divide us. Instead, we are bound tighter together, resolute in our defence of the principles of freedom and the rule of law."
Credit: Twitter/@SFRCdems: Alicia Kearns representing the UK at a recent meeting ahead of the NATO summit where Sweden's admission will be discussed
Picture Credit: Official Parliament Portrait: Alicia Kearns MP is the head of the Foreign Affairs Committee and welcomes Finland's decision to join NATO.
Picture Credit: Official Parliament Portrait: Alicia Kearns MP is the head of the Foreign Affairs Committee and welcomes Finland's decision to join NATO.
“In addition to both countries’ resolute support for Ukraine, they provide the alliance with additional resources in the high north, which is becoming an area of increasing geopolitical competition.
“Finland and Sweden rightly no longer trust the independent security arrangements they held with Russia. Their membership is not a performative effort to demonstrate resolve, but a critical requirement for enhanced security in the light of continued aggression and breaching of international rules.”
Through hosting the London Defence Conference in May and then hosting the Ukraine Recovery Conference in June where Prime Minister Sunak committed to an additional $3bn in World Bank guarantees, the UK has established their role in defending Ukraine. But will pumping more cash into a war zone really help Ukrainian's claim victory? Only time can tell.
But the UK can be expected to remain a proactive member of NATO, particularly evidenced by Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace's recent bid to be the next NATO Secretary-General. The UK’s position has been one of continuity and global solidarity with Ukraine since the war began, providing the UK with prestige as far as relations go with Kyiv. But with political relations at home in the UK tense, the question remains on how long the UK can remain front and centre of the Western alliance that is supporting Ukraine.
The message is clear, that Finland’s admission is a welcome step in building NATO capabilities that are fit for the challenges of any further aggression which may seep from the former Soviet Union.
Tension from those who are reticent about giving Stockholm keys to the alliance could stick around for a while, even if this means NATO’s capabilities would be largely increased.
Regardless of whether this comes to fruition or not, as the war wages in Ukraine, the West is preparing to spend more than ever on security which in itself is a tectonic shift to global politics. Finland's resignation from neutrality promotes a message of cooperation that also changes the global political landscape. But will this change things forever? Or, is it a temporary act to support Ukraine?
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